Managing uncertain events for certain promises

Protecting the value of a project involves dealing with the uncertainty that will be associated with its delivery. The role of Project Management is to assist in turning uncertain events and efforts into certain outcomes and promises. If this is the case, then the primary process associated with project management should be that of risk management. How other processes, such as scope, schedule, and spending management support risk management is therefore critical for successful project management and for maximizing the value of our project-based efforts. One of the more recently introduced project management methodologies has at its core a focus on the management of uncertainty and risk.

Critical Chain-based project management has received considerable attention in the Project Management community since it was broadly introduced in          M. Goldratt's book, Critical Chain (Goldratt, 1997). Most of this attention has been focused on the areas of schedule development and management. But the details of the scheduling methodology -- the critical chain versus the critical path, just-in­-time starts replacing as-soon-as-possible starts, the eschewing of task due dates and use of buffers of time to protect the project's promise and monitor its progress -­are only means to an end. Or rather, ends -- speed and reliability of project performance unencumbered by conflicting pressures and behaviors. And reliability of project promises is as much a result of a methodology's ability to support effective risk management, as it is a result of effective planning and scheduling

Recognition of uncertainty and its associated risk are at the cure of the initial stages of developing Critical Chain schedules. The emphasis on dependencies in the usual approach to developing a project network for a Critical Chain schedule helps to avoid risks of missing interactions of different parts of the project. The use of 2-point estimates to assess and address the early view of schedule risk associated with task uncertainty sets the tone up front for the appreciation of risk in the real world. In addition to task uncertainty, iteration uncertainty (a topic not written of much to date in the Critical Chain literature) can also be taken into account in the sizing of Feeding and Project Buffers. These resulting buffers themselves become a highly visible and direct assessment of the schedule risk associated with the project as a whole.

Critical Chain-based project management is more than just Critical Chain Scheduling and Buffer Management. The genesis of Critical Chain in the Theory of Constraints has yielded a holistic view of project management that provides effective risk-focused approaches not only to scheduling and control, but also to initial scoping and planning, effective resource behaviors, and minimizing cross-project impacts. These key aspects of the methodology have a range of implications for the support of basic risk management processes and outcomes, including identification and assessment of risks, response development -- bit it avoidance, mitigation, or acceptance, and guidance for response control (Pritchard, 1997).

Для спеціальностей ЕП, Ф, ОА, ЕК:

ВАРІАНТ I

Microeconomics

Microeconomics examines the economic behavior of agents (including individuals and firms) and their interactions through individual markets, given scarcity and government regulation. A given market might be for a product, say fresh corn, or the services of a factor of production, say bricklaying. The theory considers aggregates of quantity demanded by buyers and quantity supplied by sellers at each possible price per unit. It weaves these together to describe how the market may reach equilibrium as to price and quantity or respond to market changes over time. This is broadly termed demand-and-supply analysis. Market structures, such as perfect competition and monopoly, are examined as to implications for behavior and economic efficiency. Analysis often proceeds from the simplifying assumption that behavior in other markets remains unchanged, that is, partial-equilibrium analysis. General-equilibrium theory allows for changes in different markets and aggregates across all markets, including their movements and interactions toward equilibrium.

Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics examines the economy as the whole “top down” to explain broad aggregates and their interactions. Such aggregates include national income and output, the unemployment rate, and price inflation and subaggregates like total consumption and investment spending and their components. It also studies effects of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Since at least the 1960s, macroeconomics has been characterized by further integration as to micro-based modeling of sectors, including rationality of players, efficient use of market information, and imperfect competition. This has addressed a long-standing concern about inconsistent developments of the same subject. Macroeconomic analysis also considers factors affecting the long-term level and growth of national income. Such factors include capital accumulation, technological change and labor force growth.

ВАРІАНТ II

Economics

Economics is the social science that studies the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. The term economics comes from the Greek for oikos (house) and nomos (custom or law), hence “rules of the house (hold).”

A definition that captures much of modern economics is that of Lionel Robbins in a 1932 essay: “the science which studies human behaviour as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses.” Scarcity means that available resources are insufficient to satisfy all wants and needs. Absent scarcity and alternative uses of available resources, there is no economic problem. The subject thus defined involves the study of choices as they are affected by incentives and resources.

Areas of economics may be divided or classified into various types, including:

· microeconomics and macroeconomics

· positive economics (“what is”) and normative economics (“what ought to be”)

· mainstream economics and heterodox economics

· fields and broader categories within economics.

One of the uses of economics is to explain how economies, as economic systems, work and what the relations are between economic players (agents) in the larger society. Methods of economic analysis have been increasingly applied to fields that involve people (officials included) making choices in a social context, such a crime, education, the family, health, law, politics, religion, social institutions, and war. 

ВАРІАНТ III

Costs

Fixed Costs – Also referred to as overhead costs, these represent costs the marketing organization incurs that are not affected by level of production or sales. For example, for a manufacturer of writing instruments that has just built a new production facility, whether they produce one pen or one million they will still need to pay the monthly mortgage for the building. From the marketing site, fixed costs may also exist in the form of expenditure for fielding a sales force, carrying out an advertising campaign and paying a service to host the company’s website. These costs are fixed because there is a level of commitment to spending that is largely not affected by production or sales levels.

Variable Costs – These costs are directly associated with the production and sales of products and, consequently, change has the level of production or sales changes. Typically variable costs are evaluated on a per-unit basis since the cost is directly associated with individual terms. Most variable costs involve costs of terms that are either components of the product (e.g. parts, packaging) or are directly associated with creating the product ((e.g. electricity to run an assembly line). However, there are also marketing variable costs such as coupons, which are likely to cost the company more as sales increase (i.e., customers using the coupon). Variable costs, especially, for tangible products, tend to decline as more units are produced. This is due to the producing company’s ability to purchase product components for lower prices since component suppliers often provide discounted pricing for large quantity purchases.

ВАРІАНТ IV

The Accounting Process

(The Accounting Cycle)

The Accounting Process is a series of activities that begins with a transaction and ends with the closing of the books. Because this process is repeated each reporting period, it is referred to as the accounting cycle and includes these major steps:

1. Identify the transaction or other recognizable event.

2. Prepare the transaction’s source document such as purchase order or invoice.

The source document is the original record of a transaction. During an audit, source documents are used as evidence that a particular business transaction occurred. Example of source documents include:

· Cash receipts

· Credit card receipts

· Cash register tapes

· Cancelled checks

· Customer invoices

· Supplier invoices

· Purchase orders

· Time cards

· Deposit slips

· Notes for loans

· Payment stubs for interest

At a minimum, each source document should include the date, the amount, and a description of the transaction. When practical, beyond these minimum requirements source documents should contain the name and address of the order party of the transaction.

When a source document does not exist, for example, when a cash receipt is not provided by a vendor or is misplaced, a document should be generated as soon as possible after the transaction, using other documents such as bank statements to support the information on the generated source document.

Once a transaction has been journalized, the source document should be filed and make retrievable so that transactions can be verified should the need arise at a later date.

3. Analyze and classify the transaction. This step involves quantifying the transaction in monetary terms (e.g. dollars and cents), identifying the accounts that are affected and whether those accounts are to be debited or credited.

4. Record the transaction by making entries in the appropriate journal, such as the sales journal, purchase journal, cash receipt or disbursement journal, or the general journal. Such entries are made in chronological order.

The journal is the point of entry of business transactions into the accounting system. It is a chronological record of the transactions, showing an explanation of each transaction, the accounts affected, whether those accounts are increased or decreased, and by what amount.

ВАРІАНТ V

A security is an instrument that represents ownership in an asset or debt obligation.

Securities are classified as either money market securities, capital market securities, or derivative securities.

Money market securities are short-term indebtedness. By "short term" we usually imply an original maturity of one year or less. The most common money market securities are Treasury bills, commercial paper, negotiable certificates of deposit, and bankers acceptances.

Treasury bills (T-bills) are short-term securities issued by the U.S. government; they have original maturities of either four weeks, three months, or six months. Unlike other money market securities, T-bills carry no stated interest rate. Instead, they are sold on a discounted basis: Investors obtain a return on their investment by buying these securities for less than their face value and then receiving the face value at maturity. T-bills are sold in $10,000 denominations; that is, the T-bill has a face value of $10,000.

Commercial paper is a promissory note-a written promise to pay-issued by a large, creditworthy corporation. These securities have original maturities ranging from one day to 270 days and usually trade in units of $100,000. Most commercial paper is backed by bank lines of credit, which means that a bank is standing by ready to pay the obligation if the issuer is unable to. Commercial paper may be either interest - bearing or sold on a discounted basis.

Certificates of deposit (CDs) are written promises by a bank to pay a depositor.

Nowadays they have original maturities from six months to three years. Negotiable certificates of deposit are CDs issued by large commercial banks that can be bought and sold among investors. Negotiable CDs typically have original maturities between one month and one year and are sold in denominations of $100,000 or more. Negotiable certificates of deposit are sold to investors at their face value and care a fixed interest rate. On the maturity date the investor is repaid the amount borrowed plus interest.

Eurodollar certificates of deposit a CDs issued by foreign branches of U.S. banks and Yankee certificates of deposit are CDs issued by foreign bank located in the United Stats. Both Eurodollar CDs and Yankee CDs are denominated in U.S. dollars. In other words, interest payments and the repayment of principal are both in U.S. dollars.

Bankers’ acceptances are short-term loans usually to importers and exporters made by bank to finance specific transactions. An acceptance is created when a draft (a promise to pay) is written by a bank’s customer and the bank “ accept” it promising to pay/ The bank’s acceptance of the draft is a promise to pay the face amount of the draft to whoever present it for payment. The bank’s customer then uses the draft to finance a transaction giving this draft to her supplier in exchange for goods. Typically bankers acceptance have maturities of less than 180 days. Bankers acceptances are sold at a discount from their face value and the face value is paid at maturity. Since acceptances are backed by both the issuing bank and the purchaser of goods the likelihood of default is very small.

Для спеціальностей ПЗАС, СУА:

ВАРІАНТ I

DOCUMENT AND IMPLEMENT

During this phase the high level process design is converted to an executable process model. Before automating the process, it is typically documented in a form that can be shared with staff and partners. The document encapsulates information that defines the business process flow, roles of entities involved, exceptions, expectations and resource requirements. This is essential for future maintenance and improvement of the process. It may also aid in meeting certain compliance and regulatory requirements.

The next step after documentation is to implement the business process. BPEL (Business Process Execution Language) is emerging as the clear implementation standard for composing multiple synchronous and asynchronous services into collaborative and transactional process flows. BPEL benefits from over a decade of research poured into its predecessor languages, XLANG and WSFL. It includes the following concepts:

• Web Services/WSDL as component model

• XML as data model

• Synchronous and asynchronous message exchange patterns

• Deterministic and non-deterministic flow coordination

• Hierarchical exception management

• Long-running unit of work/compensation

The Oracle BPELDesigner provides a graphical and user-friendly way to build BPEL processes. What is unique about the Oracle BPEL Designer is that it uses BPEL as its native format. This means that processes built with the Designer are 100% portable and in addition it enables developers to view, and modify, the BPEL source without decreasing the usefulness of the tool.

If the high level process has been modeled using BPMN, it is first exported to the skeletal BPEL process. The skeletal process generally consists of process scopes, invoke/receive activities and partner links to the appropriate services.

The following steps need to be performed in the BPEL designer before the process can be deployed:

• Identify web service operations that are invoked on various services

• Specify XSD types for the messages that are exchanged between different
entities.

• Model transformation maps to different types of messages sent and
received from various systems

• Specify endpoint locations and connection parameters for the services
involved.

If we consider the LoanFlow example described earlier,this step would involve completing the BPEL generated from the BPMN modeling tool to include URLs for the services, XSDs for the loan application and loan offer and defining data transformations between documents exchanged between the services. Figure 3 shows the LoanFlow process modeled in the BPEL designer.

ВАРІАНТ II

                  Requirements for 1nternet Connection

The Internet is the largest data network on earth. The Internet consists of many large and small networks that are interconnected. Individual computers are the sources and destinations of information through the Internet. Connection to the Internet can be broken down into the physical connection, the logical connection, and applications.

A physical connection is made by connecting an adapter card, such as a modem or a NIC, from a PC to a network. The physical connection is used to transfer signals between PCs within the local ­area network (LAN) and to remote devices on the Internet.

The logical connection uses standards called protocols. A protocol is a formal description of a set of rules and conventions that govern how devices on a network communicate. Connections to the Internet may use multiple protocols. The Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) suite is the primary set of protocols used on the Internet. The TCP/IP suite works together to transmit and receive data, or information.

The last part of the connection are the applications, or software programs, that interpret and display data in an understandable form. Applications work with protocols to send and receive data across the Internet. A Web browser displays HTML as a Web page. Examples of Web browsers include Internet Explorer and Netscape. File Transfer Protocol (FTP) is used to download files and programs from the Internet. Web browsers also use proprietary plug-in applications to display special data types such as movies or flash animations.

This is an introductory view of the Internet, and it may seem to be a simplistic process. As the topic is explored in greater depth, students will learn that data transmission across the Internet is a complicated task.

ВАРІАНТ III

Hexadecimal

The hexadecimal or Base 16 number system is commonly used to represent binary numbers in a more readable form. Computers perform computations in binary. However, there are several instances when the binary output of a computer is expressed in hexadecimal to make it easier to read.

The configuration register in Cisco routers often requires hexadecimal to binary and binary to hexadecimal conversions. Cisco routers have a configuration register that is 16 bits long. The 16-bit binary number can be represented as a four-digit hexadecimal number. For example, 0010000100000010 in binary equals 2102 in hexadecimal. A hexadecimal number is often indicated with a Ox. For example, the hexadecimal number 2102 would be written as Ox2102.

Like the binary and decimal systems, the hexadecimal system is based on the use of symbols, powers, and positions. The symbols that hexadecimal uses are the digits 0 through 9 and the letters A through F.

All combinations of four binary digits can be represented with one hexadecimal symbol. These values require one or two decimal symbols. Two hexadecimal digits can efficiently represent any combination of eight binary digits. The decimal representation of an eight-bit binary number will require either two or three decimal digits. Since one hexadecimal digit always represents four binary digits, hexadecimal symbols are easier to use than decimal symbols when working with large binary numbers. Using hexadecimal representation also reduces the confusion of reading long strings of binary numbers and the amount of space it takes to write binary numbers. Remember that Ox may be used to indicate a hexadecimal value. The hexadecimal number 5D might be written as Ox5D

To convert to binary, simply expand each hexadecimal digit into its four-bit binary equivalent.

ВАРІАНТ IV

Boolean or Binary Logic

Boolean logic is based on digital circuitry that accepts one or two incoming voltages. Based on the input voltages, output voltage is generated. For computers the voltage difference is represented as an ON or OFF state. These two states are associated with a binary I or O.

Boolean logic is a binary logic that allows two numbers to be compared and makes a choice based on the numbers. These choices are the logical AND, OR, and NOT. With the exception of the NOT, Boolean operations have the same function. They accept two numbers, which are 1 and 0, and generate a result based on the logic rule.

The NOT operation takes the value that is presented and inverts it. A 1 becomes a 0 and a 0 becomes a 1. Remember that the logic gates are electronic devices built specifically for this purpose. The logic rule that they follow is whatever the input is, the output is the opposite.

The AND operation compares two input values. If both values are 1, the logic gate generates a 1 as the output. Otherwise it outputs a O. There are four combinations of input values. Three of these combinations generate a 0, and one combination generates a 1.

The OR operation also takes two input values. If at least one of the input values is 1, the output value is 1. Again there are four combinations of input values. Three combinations generate a 1 and the fourth generates a O.

The two networking operations that use Boolean logic are subnetwork and wildcard masking. The masking operations are used to filter addresses. The addresses identify the devices on the network and can be grouped together or controlled by other network operations. These functions will be explained in depth later in the curriculum.

ВАРІАНТ V

Executable Specifications

The past 10 years have seen important advances in system-level modeling. We can now create high-performance, timing-accurate, complete system models that do more than just mimic hardware architecture – they can actually define the architecture as a virtual system prototype.

The VSP is derived from a product’s business and functional requirements, as Figure 1 shows. Using system-level design tools, system architects can produce accurate facsimiles of the hardware and software – a mixture of actual code (the operating system, for instance) and skeleton code (applications and middleware databases). This executable system specification, or VSP, can then serve as a golden reference model, driving concurrent hardware-software development and supporting hardware and software optimization for complex control tasks. Creating an optimal VSP requires a quantitative methodology capable of feeding candidate VSPs into test regimes that run extensive software workloads and measure the results. System architects analyze the results and incrementally improve the next iteration by, among other changes, systematically varying architectural parameters that partly characterize the VSP. This process determines an optimal hardware-software architecture, or family of architectures, destined to just meet a new product’s market requirements. The process relies on VSPs that are functionally complete, inherently timing accurate, and capable of software execution performance greater than 10 MIPS. It can be partially automated by using the experimental design statistics to drive, for instance, the selection of the next VSP parameter set. The VSP executable specification leverages the engineering process when used to concurrently drive the hardware design and software development processes. With the concurrent development processes, evolving software can execute on all hardware models developed during hardware architecture and detailed design. Conversely, evolving hardware can be tested using any software developed during software architecture and detailed design. This turns the conventional development and verification/ validation process on its head: The systems-level test cases are generated as part of the VSP specification, then the architectural, module, and unit tests are generated from the top down, as hardware and software development progresses through the engineering process.

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Для спеціальності ААХ:

ВАРІАНТ I

Internal Combustion Engine

The internal combustion engine is an engine in which the combustion of fuel and an oxidizer (typically air) occurs in a confined space called a combustion chamber. This exothermic reaction creates gases at high temperature and pressure, which are permitted to expand. The defining feature of an internal combustion engine is that useful work is performed by the expanding hot gases acting directly to cause movement of solid parts of the engine, by acting on pistons, rotors, or even by pressing on and moving the entire engine itself. This contrasts with external combustion engines, such as steam engines and Stirling engines, which use an external combustion chamber to heat a separate working fluid, which then in turn does work, for example by moving a piston or a turbine. The term Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) is almost always used to refer specifically to reciprocating piston engines, Wankel engines and similar designs in which combustion is intermittent. However, continuous combustion engines, such as jet engines, most rockets and many gas turbines are also internal combustion engines. Contents Early internal combustion engines were used to power farm equipment similar to these models. The first internal combustion engines did not have compression, but ran on an air/fuel mixture sucked or blown in during the first part of the intake stroke. The most significant distinction between modern internal combustion engines and the early designs is the use of compression and, in particular, in-cylinder compression.

ВАРІАНТ II

Applications

Internal combustion engines are most commonly used for mobile propulsion in automobiles, equipment, and other portable machinery. In mobile equipment, internal combustion is advantageous, since it can provide

high power-to-weight ratios together with excellent fuel energy-density. These engines have appeared in transport in almost all automobiles, trucks, motorcycles, boats, and in a wide variety of aircraft and locomotives, generally using petroleum. Where very high power is required, such as jet aircraft, helicopters and large ships, they appear mostly in the form of turbines. They are also used for electric generators (i.e., 12V generators) and by industry.

All internal combustion engines depend on the exothermic chemical process of combustion: the reaction of a fuel, typically with the oxygen from the air, although other oxidizers such as nitrous oxide may be employed.

   The most common modem fuels are made up of hydrocarbons and are derived mostly from petroleum. These include the fuels known as diesel fuel, gasoline and petroleum gas, and the rarer use of propane gas. Most internal combustion engines designed for gasoline can run on natural gas or liquefied petroleum gases without major modifications except for the fuel delivery components. Liquid and gaseous biofuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel (a form of diesel fuel that is produced from crops that yield triglycerides such as soybean oil) can also be used. Some can also run on hydrogen gas. All internal combustion engines must achieve ignition in their cylinders to create combustion. Typically engines use either a spark ignition (SI) method or a compression ignition (CI) system. In the past, other methods using hot tubes or flames have been used.

                                                     ВАРІАНТ III