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Morphological Table of Alternative Scenarios for Ukraine's Development up to the Year 2003

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State of "East-West" Relations

Worsening of "East-West" Relations

Continuaton of a current state of "East-West" Relations

 Improvement of "East-West" Relations. Beginning of Formation of N.W.O.

 

State of Ukrainian-Russian Relations

Worsening of Relations with the RF.

Growing Economic Contradictions

Rapprochement with the RF.

Loss of Economic Sovereignty.

Formation of Confederate Relations

Dominant Orientation Toward the RF with Preservation of Political and Economic Sovereignty

Dominant West-ward Orientation.

Establishment of Equal Economic and Political Relations with the RF
Under the Conditions of Slow Reforms and Absence of Western Investments Under Administrative Reforms and Weak Cooperation with the West

Domestic Situation

in Ukraine

 Continuation of Present Day Tendencies of Systemic Economic Crisis A1 Free Fall - - - -
Termination of Progressive Economic Downfall in the Absence of Visible Reforms - - C2 Marking Time - -
Irresolute Reforms. Slow Stabilization of Economy and Weak Growth - B3 Belarus Option - D3 Eurasian Model 1 -
Successive Administrative Reforms. Moderate Growth - - - D4 Eurasian Model 2 E4 Western Authoritarianism
Radical Reforms Based on Democratic Principles. Rapid Growth - - - - E5 European Choice

 

orientations. The differences among the scenarios of this group are in the forms and mechanisms of the stimulation of reforms.

Scenario E4 - "Western Authoritarianism"

Establishment of a "de Gaul" type of liberal western authoritarianism in the state in a situation of inevitable economic crisis. Radical economic reforms assisted by administrative stimulation. A successive policy of a multi-dimensional rapprochement with the West. The simultaneous support of mutually beneficial relations with Russia based on clear economic grounds. Purposeful activity in order to form a domestic consensus. Moderate economic growth with good perspectives for its acceleration.

Scenario E5 - "The European Choice"

Similar to scenario E4, but based on democratic grounds. The formation of an internal consensus and consolidation of society around generally accepted interests and priorities such as "survival", "prosperity", "social justice", "development". Sustainable economic growth. Entry into European economic and security structures as an associate member, with full membership in the future. Transition to a European mode of development.

The probability of the realization of the developed scenarios has been evaluated with the help of the standard "Delphi technique" (seetable 2).

According to table 2, the most probable are the scenario C2 "Marking Time" (the probability of its realization is 22%), the scenarios of Group D - "Eurasian model 1" and "Eurasian model 2" (the combined probability of their realization is 35%) and the scenarios of Group E - "Western Authoritarianism" and "The European Choice" (the probability of their realization is 26%).

The above mentioned scenarios are not alternatives in the strict understanding of this word. "Mixed" versions are possible as well as transformations of one scenario into another. Thus under certain conditions scenario A1 can be transformed into scenarios B3 and C2. Scenario D can logically develop into scenario E (E4; E5). Moreover, according to numerous experts in Ukraine as well as abroad, a "reasonable dose" of authoritarianism could prove not only useful but even desirable at the first stages of radical reforms.

The probability of the realization of the developed scenarios is not constant. Data listed in the table corresponds to the state of affairs as of November, 1998. Thus, directed efforts of legislative and executive branches of power can significantly influence the probability of the realization of these scenarios (including the scenarios of group E).
Table 2.

Results of Expert Evaluations of the Probability
of the Realization of Scenarios
(The Delphi Technique)




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