EXCHANGE RATES AND CAPITAL MOBILITY

A major change in the organisation of international finance occurred in the latter years of the twentieth century, and economists are still debating its implications. At the end of the second world war the national signatories to the Bretton Woods Agreement had agreed to maintain their currencies each at a fixed exchange rate with the United States dollar, and the United States government had undertaken to buy gold on demand at a fixed rate of $35 per ounce. In support of those commitments, most signatory nations had maintained strict control over their nationals’ use of foreign exchange and upon their dealings in international financial assets.

But in 1971 the United States government announced that it was suspending the convertibility of the dollar, and there followed a progressive transition to the current regime of floating exchange rates in which most governments no longer attempt to control their exchange rates or to impose controls upon access to foreign currencies or upon access to international financial markets. The behaviour of the international financial system was transformed. Exchange rates became very volatile and there was an extended series of damaging financial crises. One study estimated that by the end of the twentieth century there had been 112 banking crises in 93 countries, another that there had been 26 banking crises, 86 currency crises and 27 mixed banking and currency crises - many times more than in the previous post-war years.

The outcome was not what had been expected. In making an influential case for flexible exchange rates in the 1950s, Milton Friedman had claimed that if there were any resulting instability, it would mainly be the consequence of macroeconomic instability, but an empirical analysis in 1999 found no apparent connection. Economists began to wonder whether the expected advantages of freeing financial markets from government intervention were in fact being realised.

Neoclassical theory had led them to expect capital to flow from the capital-rich developed economies to the capital-poor developing countries - because the returns to capital there would be higher. Flows of financial capital would tend to increase the level of investment in the developing countries by reducing their costs of capital, and the direct investment of physical capital would tend to promote specialisation and the transfer of skills and technology. However, theoretical considerations alone cannot determine the balance between those benefits and the costs of volatility, and the question has had to be tackled by empirical analysis.

A 2006 International Monetary Fund working paper offers a summary of the empirical evidence. The authors found little evidence either of the benefits of the liberalisation of capital movements, or of claims that it is responsible for the spate of financial crises. They suggest that net benefits can be achieved by countries that are able to meet threshold conditions of financial competence but that for others, the benefits are likely to be delayed, and vulnerability to interruptions of capital flows is likely to be increased.

Although the majority of developed countries now have "floating" exchange rates, some of them – together with many developing countries – maintain exchange rates that are nominally "fixed", usually with the US dollar or the euro. The adoption of a fixed rate requires intervention in the foreign exchange market by the country’s central bank, and is usually accompanied by a degree of control over its citizens’ access to international markets.

A controversial case in point is the policy of the Chinese government who had, until 2005, maintained the renminbi at a fixed rate to the dollar, but have since "pegged" it to a basket of currencies. It is frequently alleged that in doing so they are deliberately holding its value lower than if it were allowed to float (but there is evidence to the contrary).

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WHAT IS FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION?

Definition and the Legal Status of Intervention

Foreign exchange intervention is defined generally as foreign exchange transactions conducted by the monetary authorities with the aim of influencing exchange rates. It is the process by which the monetary authorities attempt to influence market conditions and/or the value of the home currency on the foreign exchange market. Intervention usually aims to promote stability by countering disorderly markets, or in response to special circumstances. 

 In Japan, the Minister of Finance is legally authorized to conduct intervention as a means to achieve foreign exchange rate stability. In the United States, the Government and Federal Reserve Board (FRB); in Euro Area, the European Central Bank (ECB); in the United Kingdom, the Bank of England (BOE) operates it.

General Ideas of Foreign Exchange Market

Foreign Exchange Market

To invest in other countries or to buy foreign products, firms and individuals may first need to acquire the currency of the country with which they intend to deal with. In addition, exporters may demand to be paid for their goods and services either in their own currency or in U.S. dollars, which are accepted worldwide. The Foreign Exchange Market, or "Forex" market, in which international currencies trades take place, is called foreign exchange market.

Exchange Rate

Each country has a currency in which the prices of goods and services are quoted - the dollar in the United States, the euro in Germany, the pound sterling in Britain, the yen in Japan, etc. Exchange rates play a central role in international trade because they allow us to compare the prices of goods and services produced in different countries.
A foreign exchange rate is the relative value between two currencies. In particular, it is the quantity of one currency required to buy or sell one unit of the other currency. The exchange rate can be quoted in 2 ways: as the price of the foreign currency in terms of home currency (direct terms) or as the price of home currency in terms of foreign currency (indirect terms).

Three Exchange Rate Regimes

In theory, there are three exchange rate regimes, namely flexible, intermediate and fixed. Under a flexible currency regime, the external value of a currency is determined more or less by the force of market supply and demand. Because floating exchange rate permitting enough flexibility to adjust fundamental disequilibria under international supervision, it can prevent competitive depreciation. On the other hand, under a fixed exchange rate arrangement, the monetary authority pegs the domestic currency to one or a basket of foreign currencies. Exchange rates between currencies that are set at predetermined levels and do not move in response to changes in supply and demand. The authority has to intervene in the foreign exchange market whenever the prevailing rate deviates from the specific one. Intermmediate exchange rate arrangement has a medium flexibility lying between flexible and fixed.

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TYPES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION

Entrustment Intervention

Entrustment Intervention" means intervention that is conducted in overseas markets with funds of local monetary authorities. It is different from the intervention that is conducted in overseas markets with funds of respective foreign monetary authorities.